The Three Warfares Strategy: A Blueprint for Influence
First codified in 2003 as part of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) political work regulations, the Three Warfares strategy encapsulates China’s modern approach to global influence.
The components are:
- Legal Warfare: Using international and domestic laws to constrain adversaries and shape rules in China’s favor.
- Public Opinion Warfare: Crafting narratives to influence global and domestic audiences, ensuring Beijing’s perspective dominates.
- Psychological Warfare: Undermining the morale of adversaries and manipulating perceptions to weaken opposition.
This strategy is deeply rooted in China’s historical experience, particularly its so-called Century of Humiliation.
During this period, spanning the 19th and early 20th centuries, Western powers, Japan, and Russia exploited a weakened China through unequal treaties and territorial concessions.
This history has fostered an enduring desire within the CCP to rebuild national strength and ensure that China never again falls victim to foreign domination.
China’s leadership is also acutely aware of the power of information.
Influenced by Western strategies, such as those used by the U.S. during the Gulf Wars, Beijing recognized the importance of public opinion in shaping global perceptions.
Joseph Nye’s concept of soft power—cultural and ideological influence—further inspired China’s efforts to promote its worldview. “If a state can make its power seem legitimate in the eyes of others,” Nye argued, “it will encounter less resistance to its wishes.”
For China, this has translated into a relentless campaign for information dominance.
Public Opinion Warfare: The Disinformation Machine
China’s public opinion warfare is a sprawling operation, encompassing everything from fake social media accounts to state-sponsored news outlets.
The CCP generates an estimated 450 million fake social media posts annually.
These efforts are not confined to domestic audiences; they target global populations to spread pro-China narratives and discredit adversaries.
One of the most striking examples is China’s use of banned platforms like Twitter and Facebook to conduct disinformation campaigns abroad.
Ironically, while these platforms are prohibited within China, they serve as critical tools for projecting influence internationally.
Researchers have found that many of the fake accounts created by China impersonate ordinary citizens of foreign nations, pushing narratives that align with CCP objectives.
For example, during the Hong Kong protests of 2019, fake accounts on Twitter posed as Americans to amplify pro-Beijing rhetoric, portraying the protesters as violent extremists while praising law enforcement in Hong Kong.
These accounts often relied on coordinated activity, with thousands of bots retweeting or liking posts within minutes of publication, creating an illusion of widespread agreement with CCP viewpoints.
Hong Kong Protests
The 2019 Hong Kong protests were a litmus test for China’s disinformation capabilities.
Protestors demanded greater freedoms and opposed a controversial extradition bill that would have allowed Hong Kong residents to face trial in mainland China.
In response, the CCP launched a two-pronged disinformation campaign targeting both domestic and international audiences:
- Domestic Messaging: Platforms like Weibo (China’s Twitter equivalent) were flooded with posts inciting violence against protestors. One Weibo user declared, “Beating them to a pulp is not enough. They must be beaten to death. Just send a few tanks over to clean them up.” Such rhetoric not only stoked hatred but also justified the government’s crackdown.
- International Propaganda: Fake accounts on Twitter and Facebook masqueraded as Americans from states like Ohio and Texas, amplifying pro-China narratives. Paid advertisements on these platforms praised Hong Kong’s police and portrayed protestors as “cockroaches”—a dehumanizing term designed to erode global sympathy.
This campaign underscores China’s overarching goal: to control the narrative by framing dissent as illegitimate and ensuring that Beijing’s version of events dominates public discourse.
The Mechanics of Media Warfare
China’s media warfare efforts are methodical, guided by four pillars:
- Top-Down Guidance: All messaging aligns with directives from senior CCP leaders, ensuring consistency and coordination.
- Pre-Emption: By being the first to release information, China frames events in its favor, forcing adversaries to react to its narratives.
- Flexibility: Strategies are adaptable, evolving to suit different political and military contexts.
- Comprehensive Resource Use: China integrates civilian and military resources, including state-owned media outlets, Confucius Institutes, and social media users, into its campaigns.
Confucius Institutes, in particular, play a crucial role by promoting Chinese language and culture while subtly advancing CCP-approved narratives.
These institutes, established in over 530 locations worldwide, are often embedded within academic institutions.
Critics argue that they serve as tools for soft power influence, curating a sanitized image of China and suppressing discussions on sensitive topics like human rights abuses in Xinjiang or the status of Taiwan.
For example, several universities in the United States have faced controversies over Confucius Institutes’ attempts to restrict campus events or academic discussions perceived as critical of Beijing.
Global Implications: Why China’s Disinformation Matters
China’s disinformation campaigns are not just about shaping narratives; they are part of a broader strategy to achieve information dominance (xinxi quan), news dominance (xinwen quan), and psychological dominance (xinli quan).
These efforts have far-reaching implications:
- Erosion of Democratic Institutions: By flooding information ecosystems with propaganda and falsehoods, China undermines trust in democratic processes and institutions.
- Influence on Diasporic Communities: Chinese diasporas are often targeted with messaging that glorifies the CCP and delegitimizes dissent.
- Export of Digital Authoritarianism: Through surveillance technology and censorship tools, China promotes its model of governance to other authoritarian regimes.
The stakes are high.
As one expert noted, disinformation is “more insidious than simply telling lies on the internet.”
It is a coordinated effort to influence target populations by violating democratic values and societal norms.
A Battle for Truth
China’s disinformation machine is a powerful weapon in its quest for global dominance.
By understanding the Three Warfares strategy and its implementation, we can better combat the spread of false narratives and protect the integrity of democratic societies.
Ultimately, the fight against disinformation is a fight for truth, freedom, and the principles that underpin open, transparent governance.
Sources
- Halper, Stefan. China: The Three Warfares. Office of Net Assessment, 2013. Link
- Drew, Kevin. "Social Media With Chinese Characteristics," US News & World Report, June 2016. Link
- Zhong, Raymond; Myers, Steven; and Wu, Jin. "How China Unleashed Twitter Trolls to Discredit Hong Kong’s Protesters," The New York Times, September 2019. Link
- Analytic Exchange Program. Combatting Targeted Disinformation Campaigns, October 2019.
- Center for Information Technology and Society, "How is Fake News Spread?" U.C. Santa Barbara. Link
