Note: I will provide sources and some of the defenses of my claims in the "Sources and References" section at the bottom of this article.
"I was complacent in my dismissive attitude to the argument that the Western powers would back ethnic cleansing and massacre in the Donbass (1), by forces including some motivated by Nazi ideology (2)."
(1) Ukrainian forces did not commit ethnic cleansing in Donbas.
(2) You might've also noticed that Murray mentioned that some of the forces that supposedly participated in “ethnic cleansing” were motivated by Nazi ideology. This point can easily be turned against Murray. Some Russian forces that participated in the invasion of Ukraine were also motivated by Nazi ideology.
"The causes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are plain. Alarm at NATO expansionism (3) and forward positioning of aggressive military assets encircling Russia (4). The Ukrainian coup of 2014 (5). Exasperation at Ukrainian bad faith and the ignoring of the Minsk accords (6). The continuing death toll from shelling of Russian speakers in the Donbass (7). The suppression of the Russian language (8), of Russian Orthodox religion (9) and of the main pro-Russian opposition political party in Ukraine are simple facts (10)."
(3) NATO expansionism cannot be blamed for Putin's actions. Kaliningrad has been "encircled" since 2004. Did Russia invade Poland or Lithuania? The question is rhetorical. Countries are free to join NATO or any other military alliance. Especially, if the people support such decision (80% + of Ukrainians support joining NATO and EU)
(4) Next, Russia was nowhere near being encircled by NATO or its military assets. If Ukraine joined NATO in 2022, the Russian-NATO border would stretch 2,918 kilometers. The length of the entire Russian border is 22,407 kilometers. The Russian-NATO border would only comprise around 13% of the whole Russian border. Furthermore, "Aggressive military assets" do not stretch across the entire Russia-NATO border. Keep in mind that Murray has not provided any evidence for such assets in this article. The conclusion seems evident.
(5) The Maidan revolution was not a coup.
(6) Russia ignored the Minsk Accords.
(7) The shelling was prefaced by proxy invasion of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by Russian-backed separatists and an invasion of Crimea. “In so far as objects are concerned, military objectives are limited to those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose total or partial destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage” - Article 52. Russians have set up such objects in areas where civilians live, effectively using them as human shields. Of the total 3,404 civilian casualties, the majority occurred in 2014 and 2015, when Russian-backed separatists were rapidly advancing. The number of civilian deaths dropped to 25 in 2021. For comparison, since the start of the 2022 invasion 10,582 civillians died. So if we keep the 2021 rate, we'd arrive at the conclusion that it would take 423 years to do the amount of damage Putin did just in 2 years.
The claim that "Russian speakers'' were the ones being shelled is manipulative as well. Although it isn't a direct lie, it omits the fact that there were most likely also Ukrainian speakers in Donbas who suffered from military strikes. There is no reason to assume that only Russian speakers fell victim to these shellings. It is statistically unlikely. Artillery does not discriminate on the linguistic basis.
(8) Ukraine's language law doesn't ban or suppress (in any sense relevant to the invasion) Russian. Instead, it ends the discrimination against Ukrainian speakers. Russia also has a very similar law that is often overlooked. "Use of Russian is obligatory in the spheres determined by this Federal Law, other Federal Laws, the Law of the Russian Federation of October 25, 1991 No. 1807-I "About languages of the people of the Russian Federation"."
(9) The alleged suppression happened after both the 2014 and 2022 events, so it couldn't have served as a reason or justification for either of them. The law in question was also supported by the majority of Ukrainians.
(10) The parties that were banned had close ties to Russia. It is completely understandable why someone might want to shut down the activity of parties that act against national interests. Russia also blocked opposition parties from participating in the elections. "It is clear that Putin has taken a decision not to allow our party to participate in the elections," Kasyanov (leader of one of such parties) said. Should this be used as a "cause" for an invasion of Russia? You can't have it both ways.
"... I now think Putin was justified in the invasion. It is not that any of the arguments are new. It is simply that before I did not believe that the West would sponsor mass ethnic cleansing and genocidal attack on the Donbass by extreme Ukrainian nationalist-led, Western-armed forces (11). I thought the "West" was more civilised than that. I now have to face the fact that I was wrong about the character of the NATO powers. The alternative to Putin's action probably was indeed massacre and ethnic cleansing (12)."
(11) Murray is regurgitating the same talking point as before. Refer to points (1) and (7).
(12) This is a pure speculation that Murray did not defend. It also relies on a false premise. Refer to points (1) and (7).
"The deal which was torpedoed by the West nearly two years ago (and in truth the US played more of a role than Boris Johnson – I was actually there in Turkey) ceded only the Crimea to Russia, with a Minsk plus deal for the Donbass which would have remained Ukrainian (13)."
(13) The deal also failed because it was terrible for the Ukrainian side, and Murray himself must agree with me. In a 2022 Consortium News article, he wrote, "There isn't a way out with a peaceful, neutral Ukraine. Once you try to resolve matters by pure force, you lose that option. If I were Ukrainian, there is no way now I would be agreeing to the demilitarisation of my country." This is precisely what the peace deal offered. "Demilitarisation" and "permanent neutrality" were included in the proposal.
"But the political will of the West to continue to pump in these billions is plainly sapping, as it becomes obvious there will be no successful Ukrainian offensive (14)."
(14) People said the same thing before a successful Kyiv counteroffensive, before the successful Kharkiv counteroffensive, and before the successful Kherson counteroffensive. You get the point. It is yet another speculation that was not defended in the article.
"I have also lived in Russia and was for a time both a fluent Russian and Polish speaker. I do not write this to claim I am right, but so that you know what has formed my view (15)."
(15) I have also lived in Ukraine and was for a time both a fluent Ukrainian and Russian speaker. I do not write this to claim I am right, but so that you know what has formed my view.
"There is now a Ukrainian national identity, and those who subscribe to it have the right to their state. That they have a right to the former boundaries of Soviet Ukraine is a different proposition (16)."
(16) In the 1991 referendum (which Russia recognized), the majority of people in all regions of Soviet Ukraine voted for independence (which Russia also recognized). This shows that Ukraine indeed does have a right to the former boundaries of Soviet Ukraine.
"The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine" - Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
"All people of good will should therefore wish to see an end to fighting and a peace settlement, of which the territorial elements are somewhere close to the current lines between the forces, with Russia giving back some territory in return for recognition of its gains. The alternative is more death, human misery and economic malaise (17)."
(17) All people of goodwill wish to see an end to the fighting and a peace settlement where Russia returns all occupied territories and pays reparations for destroying the Ukrainian economy and infrastructure. The alternative is more death, human misery, and economic malaise.
Sources and References
(1) https://twitter.com/Poetic_Fella/status/1783866841674223659
https://bitterwinter.org/donbass-did-ukraine-kill-14000-pro-russians/
https://theins.ru/antifake/248590
https://iran.mfa.gov.ua/fa/news/fake-ukraine-committed-genocide-against-donbas-inhabitants
https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-ukraine-committed-genocide-against-donbas-inhabitants/
(2) https://ukraineworld.org/en/articles/infowatch/russian-neo-nazi
https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-neo-nazis-fighting-ukraine/31871760.html
https://www.statista.com/chart/26933/ukrainians-survey-nato-eu/
https://www.maidanmuseum.org/uk/node/1217
https://twitter.com/Poetic_Fella/status/1782803511417229792
https://twitter.com/Poetic_Fella/status/1784323472312631415
https://www.polygraph.info/a/ukrainian-maidan-was-not-a-coup/6741774.html
(6) https://cepa.org/article/dont-let-russia-fool-you-about-the-minsk-agreements/
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2015-02-04/russia-sabotages-minsk-agreement-donbas
(7) https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/api-1977/article-52
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293409/civilian-deaths-related-to-russia-ukraine-conflict/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/7/7454637/
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/08/1230179972/russia-anti-war-candidate-rejected
(13) https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/02/craig-murray-how-can-the-war-end/
(16) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum
https://www.csce.gov/publications/ukraines-referendum-independence-and-presidential-election/
https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetails.aspx?objid=0800000280401fbb
