Today, few predict an "imminent collapse" of the Russian economy. However, signs of deteriorating trends and economic challenges confront Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime with a dilemma: continuing the aggressive war or quickly ending it are both likely to lead to an economic crisis.Observers point out several unique features of the Russian economy that cast doubt on claims of its "sustainable development" and "prosperity." First, the current key rate is more than double the official annual inflation rate, resulting in a double-digit real interest rate — an unusual scenario. This could suggest that actual inflation is much higher than official reports indicate and that inflation expectations among the public and businesses exceed the Russian Central Bank's estimates (over 13%). Even if official inflation figures aren’t distorted, the calculation methods don’t account for changes in the consumer basket due to sanctions, such as the replacement of Western goods with cheaper Chinese alternatives.Second, despite the high interest rate, loan volume continues to grow, as noted by Elvira Nabiullina, governor of the Bank of Russia — a concern for the central bank.
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