For Putin, the explicitly stated objective is to eliminate Ukraine as an independent nation-state and subject it to Russian control. Yet after two and a half years and a massive mobilization of military resources and manpower, Russia controls only around 18% of Ukraine’s territory, and most of that was grabbed back in 2014. Set against Putin’s war aims, the invasion has been a miserable failure.Could this change? For a Russian victory to be even remotely possible, the West would need to end all forms of support – financial as well as military – to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian people would need to lose their will to resist. Absent either – or probably both – of these outcomes, Putin’s war aim seems unachievable.Opinion: The harsh truth behind Ukraine’s peace prospectsPlans for ending the war, rumors of a new “Minsk 3.0” contact group, preparations for elections in Ukraine… The casual observer might be excused for thinking peace in Ukraine is just around the corner.

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