Over the summer and autumn of 2024, the battlefield situation markedly turned for the worse for Kyiv, as Russia has begun capturing territory at a greater pace since the first months of the full-scale invasion.The resounding victory in the U.S. presidential elections of former President Donald Trump, who has been openly scathing of U.S. military and financial aid to Ukraine and the inner circle of whom have spread anti-Ukrainian narratives on the war, has put the future of Ukraine’s ability to hold Russia back in grave doubt.Meanwhile though, the incoming U.S. president has nonetheless claimed repeatedly to be able to end the war quickly upon his inauguration in January.Given the slow-burn failure of the West’s current policy to support Ukraine enough to simply survive rather than win in the face of Russia’s war of attrition, many Ukrainians, from officials to soldiers and civilians, have expressed quiet hope that Trump could get tough with Russian President Vladimir Putin in an effort to stop Russia’s advance.But Washington is not a direct belligerent in the full-scale war, which began with Russia's attempt to decapitate independent Ukraine through an attack on Kyiv, and which has since continued with all evidence that Putin’s maximalist goals remain in place.Stirred already by the full-scale invasion, European nations have meanwhile realized the urgent need to scale up defense production in light of an incoming president Trump, who has openly questioned if he would honor Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.But behind loud public statements from European leaders on taking more responsibility for the continent’s own security, the question of whether these plans also include brave steps to secure Ukraine’s future is usually left unanswered.With just over a month until Trump’s inauguration, both Kyiv and Moscow are jostling to best improve their negotiating positions ahead of what is likely to be a dynamic winter, both on the battlefield and in the geopolitical arena.Realistic scenarios for Ukraine: from hopeful to hellishExcluding developments that are grounded more in wishful thinking than in reality, such as Ukraine’s overstretched military conducting major counteroffensives, or Russia’s economy suffering a sudden collapse, realistic endpoints to Russia's war against Ukraine can begin to take shape.