Russia: War, Economic Struggles, and Western Tensions

Russia remains locked in a protracted war in Ukraine, which continues to deplete its economic and military resources.

According to Focus 2025, "Russia has suffered high losses in Ukraine. At least 115,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, and when those wounded, imprisoned, or missing are taken into account, Russia has lost more than 600,000 soldiers in this war."

These heavy losses have forced Moscow to adapt its military strategy, shifting towards increased reliance on conscription, military aid from allies like North Korea and Iran, and intensified drone warfare.

The report warns that despite its setbacks, Russia is determined to sustain its war effort, prioritizing gradual territorial gains and deterrence against Western intervention.

Despite these losses, Moscow is prioritizing its war efforts, relying on North Korean and Iranian support to sustain its military operations.

However, economic instability, Western sanctions, and internal inefficiencies are eroding Russia’s long-term war capabilities.

Key developments:

  • Persistent Conflict with the West: "Russia considers itself to be in direct conflict with the West. This view will persist regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, and tensions between Russia and the West will remain high in 2025," states Focus 2025. Moscow’s actions, including digital sabotage and military posturing, underscore its adversarial stance towards NATO and Western nations. Russia sees itself in direct confrontation with NATO and the broader Western alliance, a stance that will continue regardless of the outcome in Ukraine.
  • Dependence on China: Russia is increasingly reliant on Chinese trade and investment, with China strategically using this dependence to gain leverage in economic negotiations.
  • Sabotage and Cyber Operations: "In 2024, the Russian intelligence and security services recruited Europeans via digital platforms, offering them payment for performing specific and gradually more serious acts of sabotage," states Focus 2025. Russia is likely to intensify cyber attacks and sabotage operations against NATO countries, including Norway, to deter Western support for Ukraine.
  • Increased Military Presence in the Nordics: With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Russia is redirecting its military focus towards the Baltic region and the High North, viewing Norway as part of an ‘unfriendly West.’

China: Economic Expansion and Military Modernization

China is strategically leveraging its economic strength to assert global dominance while preparing for a potential future confrontation with the West.

The country is focusing on economic self-sufficiency, military-civil fusion, and strengthening its military capabilities.

Key trends:

  • Global Economic Influence: "China exported five million electric vehicles to the global market in 2023, and figures were expected to be 25 percent higher in 2024," notes Focus 2025. Beijing continues to subsidize key industries, such as electric vehicles, batteries, and high-tech infrastructure, to dominate global supply chains.
  • Military-Civil Integration: Civilian companies are actively supporting military development, particularly in satellite technology, artificial intelligence, and strategic deterrence.
  • Assertiveness in the Arctic: "China has ambitions to strengthen its presence, capabilities, and influence in the Arctic in the coming years," states Focus 2025. It is expanding its Arctic footprint by strengthening ties with Russia, investing in infrastructure, and increasing scientific and military activity in the region.
  • Growing Military Capabilities: China is rapidly modernizing its military, developing hypersonic weapons, advanced nuclear capabilities, and conducting joint operations with Russia in the Pacific and Arctic regions.

Accelerating Arms Race: A New Era of Strategic Competition

The expiration of the New START treaty in 2026 marks the end of the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control agreement, setting the stage for an unrestricted nuclear arms race.

Both Russia and China are ramping up military investments in response to perceived Western threats.

Key developments:

  • Russia’s Nuclear Expansion: "Russia has a comprehensive and highly ambitious weapons program that includes testing and developing both strategic and non-strategic weapons," states Focus 2025. New weapons programs, including the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile and Poseidon nuclear torpedo, signal Moscow’s intent to maintain strategic deterrence.
  • China’s Growing Nuclear Arsenal: China is rapidly expanding its nuclear force, constructing over 300 new intercontinental ballistic missile silos and diversifying its strategic capabilities.
  • Increased Sabotage and Cyber Threats: Russia and China are investing heavily in cyber warfare, electronic warfare, and anti-satellite weapons to disrupt Western military and economic infrastructure.

Middle East and Africa: Conflict and Rising Terrorist Threats

The security situation in the Middle East and Africa has deteriorated, with conflicts fueling terrorism and geopolitical instability.

Key concerns:

  • Middle East Instability: "The Gaza conflict has increased the level of conflict between Israel on one side and the Iran-led axis of resistance, including Hezbollah, Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthi movement in Yemen, on the other," states Focus 2025. This increases the risk of a broader regional war.
  • Russia’s Growing Influence in Africa: The Kremlin is using mercenary groups and political influence to expand its foothold on the continent, undermining Western interests.
  • Heightened Terrorist Threats: "The conflicts in the Middle East and Africa leave opportunities that terrorist groups have utilized in order to radicalize and recruit members, and to step up their attack activities locally and in the West," warns Focus 2025. Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are exploiting conflicts to expand operations and recruit new members, increasing the risk of attacks in Europe.

Conclusion: A More Unstable World Order

As geopolitical tensions rise, international cooperation is weakening.

Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s economic and military expansion, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Africa contribute to a more fragmented and dangerous global landscape.

Western nations must prepare for increased cyber threats, military provocations, and economic coercion as authoritarian powers seek to reshape the global order in their favor.

For further details and access to the full Focus 2025 report, visit: http://etj.no/focus.

The report is publicly available and provides an in-depth assessment of key security challenges facing Norway and the broader international community.